San Francisco's condo market, particularly in the South Beach and downtown areas, is showing signs of recovery after years of struggle.
Real estate agents report that sales have jumped compared to October 2024 with many saying the excitement around AI companies moving into San Francisco is driving renewed interest in downtown condos, as those units are close to major tech employers.
Overall from January to October, condo sales in San Francisco increased by 11.5% compared to 2024, with prices also tipping up. High-end buildings like Lumina and Infinity are receiving the most attention, and even the luxury tower at 181 Fremont and the Four Seasons Private Residences have seen recent movement.
Specifically, the South Beach condo market in San Francisco has seen a distinct pickup over the past three weeks, Jennifer Rosdail with KW Advisors said, as that part of town — located near Oracle Park and the growing Mission Bay neighborhood — is attracting more and more eyeballs.
"I feel like that condo market that’s been so beleaguered is going to snap back to where it should be sooner rather than later," Rosdail said.
Milan Jezdimirovic with Compass said he and his wife Dunja Green, who together had the most transactions in South Beach last year, are currently experiencing solid traffic for condo sales in the neighborhood and have also been receiving around 20 to 30 calls and inquiries every day for rentals.
Jezdimirovic said the current inventory in South Beach is very low with the months of supply in October at only 3.6 months. In comparison, the supply figure in October last year was seven months, almost 100% higher.
Jezdimirovic said 73 homes sold last month in South Beach, which is 43% more than in October of last year. Most of the sellers purchased in the past 12 to 13 years and are losing money. He added that the rental market there is also in demand, and he and Green have leased over 90 homes just in South Beach alone this year.
"There is legitimate hype about AI driving up the real estate market in S.F., especially downtown condos, as they have great proximity to all the offices of the major employers," Jezdimirovic said. "So many sellers are holding off on selling, as they want to wait for the market to improve. They also are not ready to give up their low interest rate and purchase a new home with a significantly higher interest rate. All this contributes to low inventory."
In addition, Thanksgiving normally slows down, but not this year, he said, noting he and Green receive over 20-30 calls inquiries every day for rentals and have a waiting list of renters trying to lease condos in luxury full-service buildings like Lumina, the Harrison, Mira, One Steuart Lane and Millennium Tower.
The fourth-quarter market activity has been robust with the number of showings and the number of accepted offers and sales all on the rise, said Compass agent Joske Thompson, who focuses on District 9, which includes the South Beach neighborhood.
"The buyer profile is a fascinating combination of first-time buyers, baby boomers buying and renting to their children and second-home buyers," Thompson said. "The smart people are realizing that renting is so expensive that they are investing in themselves by buying condominiums to take advantage of tax benefits and potential capital appreciation."
Compass agent Justin Goldberg said he has raised his family in South Beach since 2015 and has seen a substantial change in the neighborhood. He said South Beach has experienced the strongest listing absorption since the prepandemic period, driven by a surge in AI-related hiring, a renewed return-to-office trend and the noticeable improvement in safety throughout the downtown area.
"The neighborhood has a new sense of energy and excitement, attracting both longtime residents and new buyers seeking to be part of this revitalized urban lifestyle," Goldberg said.
And it's not just South Beach, as other high-profile buildings in the downtown area are showing signs of condo sale and leasing upswings. For example, at the Four Seasons Private Residences at 706 Mission St., sales of brand-new units lagged for years during the pandemic before showing signs of life earlier this year.
Most recently on Nov. 14, the Four Seasons Residences closed an $8.8 million luxury condo sale for unit #38A. The deed shows a revocable trust with the name Glenn Foster as the buyer.
Meanwhile, 181 Fremont St. just sold one of its last condos — this one on the 62nd floor. Except for two half-floor penthouses and the full-ffloor Grand Penthouse, which is still listed for $35 million, the building is now sold out.
"We are delighted to report that we are on schedule to close our final home at 181 Fremont on Friday," said Jessica Keenan, sales manager for 181 Fremont "The home will close at $4.8 million, with a per square foot price of $2,121."
This year from January to October there were a total of 1,897 condominium sales — an increase of 11.5% or 196 sales year over year. The average price in so far this year was $1,323,372, also an increase of just under 1% compared to 2024.
Krysen Heathwood, managing director at the Compass Development Marketing Group, said that after analyzing the data from the first nine months, it's clear the condo market in the city continues to experience an increase in the number of sales and average sale price and average price per square foot compared to 2024.
"Prospects who have been sitting on the sidelines for two-plus years are now buying," Heathwood said.
